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Mon, 11th of August, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo

EURUSD Outlook
Friday the Greenback continued it’s positive trend and probably most influenced by the sharp decline of oil price by more than $30 in the last 4 weeks. We had a huge bearish movement of 337 pips. The pair topped at 1.5334, bottomed at 1.4997 and closed at 1.5006. We had a gap early today as the pair opened at 1.0494 today at Asian market, bottomed at 1.4918 (temporarily?), corrected upside and topped at 1.4992 and traded around 1.4970 at the time I wrote this commentary. My model is short, targeting 1.4865. The pair should maintain a consistent move below key level 1.4975 to keep the bearish continuation intact in the nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5030. CCI in oversold area on daily and weekly chart suggesting that the pair bearish move might have exhausted, but just cross 100 line down on monthly chart suggesting a potential bearish view of this month.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.4890
• S2= 1.4775
• S3= 1.4553
• R1= 1.5227
• R2= 1.5449
• R3= 1.5564

GBPUSD Outlook
The Greenback also continue a positive trend against the Sterling on Friday. The pair move 292 pips, topped only at 1.9437, bottomed at 1.9145 and closed at 1.9211. Technically speaking from a broader view, after broke the 1.9206 resistance level, the pair is targeting 1.8757 area. My model is short targeting 1.9024. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.9206. CCI in oversold area on daily and weekly chart, suggesting that the bearish momentum might have exhausted, but just cross the -100 line down on monthly chart, suggesting a potential bearish view for this month.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9091
• S2= 1.8972
• S3= 1.8799
• R1= 1.9383
• R2= 1.9556
• R3= 1.9675

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday. The pair topped at 110.36 and closed at 110.16. Early today in Asian market the pair had a minor downside correction, bottomed at 109.61 (temporarily?) and traded around 109.90 at the time I wrote this commentary. My model is mixed with upside bias. Immediate support is seen at 109.50. Initial resistance at 110.36 (Friday’s high). A break to the upside would trigger further bullish movement towards 111.50 area. CCI in overbought area on both daily and weekly chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 109.52
• S2= 108.88
• S3= 108.46
• R1= 110.58
• R2= 111.00
• R3= 111.64

USDCHF Outlook
Like all other major currencies, Friday the Swiss Franc slumped against US Dollar. The pair topped at 1.0835 and closed at 1.0822. My model goes long targeting 1.0890. Immediate support is seen at 1.0780 followed by 1.0730. CCI in overbought area both on daily and weekly chart, suggesting the bullish momentum might have exhausted, but just cross -100 line up on monthly chart, suggesting a potential bullish view for this month.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0675
• S2= 1.0528
• S3= 1.0448
• R1= 1.0902
• R2= 1.0982
• R3= 1.1129

Have a great day!